Market research firm DFC Intelligence forecasts Nintendo's Switch 2 to dominate next-generation console sales, projecting 15-17 million units sold in its first year. This prediction positions the Switch 2 as the clear leader, outpacing competitors. Read on for details on this impressive forecast.
80 Million Units by 2028: A Projected Domination
DFC Intelligence's 2024 Video Game Market Report, released December 17th, names the Nintendo Switch 2 the "clear winner" in the next-gen console race. Nintendo is predicted to lead the console market, leaving Microsoft and Sony behind. This projection is based on the Switch 2's anticipated 2025 release, giving it a significant head start in a currently limited competitive landscape. The report estimates sales of 15-17 million units in 2025, escalating to over 80 million units by 2028. Such high demand might even challenge Nintendo's manufacturing capacity.
While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these projects appear to be in earlier stages of development. DFC Intelligence anticipates new consoles from these companies by 2028. However, the three-year gap (unless a surprise release occurs in 2026) should solidify the Switch 2's market dominance. The report suggests only one of the post-Switch 2 consoles will achieve significant success. While not specifying which, it highlights a potential "PS6" as a strong contender, given PlayStation's established player base and strong intellectual properties.
The Switch's remarkable success is undeniable. Circana (formerly NPD) data shows US Switch lifetime sales surpassing those of the PlayStation 2. Mat Piscatella, Circana's executive director and analyst, announced on BlueSky that the Switch, with 46.6 million units sold, is now the second best-selling console in US history, trailing only the Nintendo DS. This achievement is noteworthy, even considering a reported 3% decrease in yearly Switch sales.
Video Game Industry Growth on the Horizon
DFC Intelligence paints a positive picture for the video game industry. Founder and CEO David Cole states that after a two-year slump, the industry is poised for strong growth through the end of the decade, having grown more than 20 times over the past three decades. 2025 is projected to be a particularly strong year, with new releases like the Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto VI driving consumer spending.
The gaming audience is also expected to expand, exceeding 4 billion players by 2027. The rise of "high-end gaming-on-the-go," esports, and gaming influencers contributes to increased hardware purchases across both PC and console platforms.
